NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. stock bull market moved into its fifth year Monday after completing four years of gains. The S&P 500 has climbed about 119% from its Oct. 12, 2022 bear-market closing low, according to Truist analysis. The index ended that session at 3,577.03, its weakest close since November 2020. It finished Friday at 7,811.54, leaving it up 14.1% for 2026. The benchmark also gained 1.2% during the latest week.
The current run is the 11th bull market since the 1950s in the historical series. It is also the seventh to remain intact for at least four years. Its 119% rise trails the 184% average gain recorded across the bull markets in the study. The 2009-to-2020 cycle rose 401%, while the 1987-to-2000 advance reached 582%. Those earlier periods remain among the strongest long-running gains in the comparison.
Past fifth-year performances have generally remained positive, although results varied across individual cycles. Six of the previous 10 bull markets continued beyond their fourth anniversaries. For bull markets that reached a fifth year, the average return was 12% and the median was 15%. The same historical analysis showed an average maximum drawdown of about 14% during fifth years. The figures describe previous market cycles and do not determine the current market’s path.
Corporate earnings reinforce market advance
Corporate profits remain a major feature of the current advance. FactSet said third-quarter S&P 500 earnings were running 29.6% above a year earlier on Oct. 9. That pace would mark a third consecutive quarter with earnings growth above 25%. The growth estimate stood at 29.2% at the end of September. Among 19 index companies that had reported, 84% topped analysts’ average earnings estimates. Their combined earnings exceeded estimates by 4.9%.
Analysts also expect strong profit growth through the end of 2026. Fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings are projected to rise 27.6% from a year earlier. Full-year earnings growth is estimated at 32.4%. Semiconductor and hardware companies account for about 40% of upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates. Barclays research also found those companies account for about 75% of year-to-date revisions to 2027 estimates. Technology-linked businesses therefore remain a large part of current earnings revisions.
Higher rates accompany fifth-year milestone
The rally is unfolding alongside higher interest rates and elevated U.S. government bond yields. The Federal Reserve raised its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% on Sept. 16. Officials said economic activity was expanding at a solid pace while inflation remained elevated. September projections placed median 2026 economic growth at 2.3% and unemployment at 4.1%. The Fed’s next scheduled policy meeting runs from Oct. 27 through Oct. 28.
Long-term Treasury yields remain high as the stock market begins its fifth year of gains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 5.24% on Oct. 9, while the 30-year yield was 5.60%. The S&P 500 still rose 0.6% that session and closed at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.6%. U.S. stocks enter the fifth year near record levels with earnings growth strong and borrowing costs elevated.